The Seattle Mariners (28-20) and the Houston Astros (25-24) begin a 4-game series Thursday at Daikin Park in Houston. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mariners vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 2-1
The Mariners picked up a 6-5 win Wednesday on the road against the Chicago White Sox, securing a series win with a second victory. The M’s cashed as a moderate (-145) favorite as the Over (8.5) connected. Seattle C Cal Raleigh, OF Julio Rodriguez and OF Leodys Taveras each swatted homers, with J-Rod driving in 3 runs.
The Over result Wednesday snapped a 7-game run to the Under. Seattle has won 5 of the past 6 games, all on the road, and it is 7-1 in the previous 8 outings away from home.
Mariners RHP George Kirby makes his season debut Thursday. He missed the first 48 games of the season after being shut down in spring training due to inflammation in his right shoulder. He did rehab in extended spring training in Arizona, while also making 3 rehab starts for Triple-A Tacoma. Manager Dan Wilson said Kirby will be limited to 75-80 pitches in his season debut. The team has been resting him 6 days between rehab starts, too, and that could continue in season. He threw 64 pitches in his most recent start for Tacoma, and his fastball was clocked at 98 mph.
The Astros suffered a 8-4 loss on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays, dropping the series with 2 losses in 3 games. The Over (8) cashed in Wednesday’s loss, ending a 4-game Under streak. The Under is still 7-2 in the past 9 games for the Astros. The loss Wednesday spoiled a strong effort at the plate for SS Isaac Paredes, who finished 2-for-4 with 2 HRs and 3 RBIs.
These teams met April 7-9 in Seattle, with the Mariners winning 2 of the 3 meetings. Each game in the series was decided by a single run, however, with the total going 1-1-1.
Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
Kirby (3-1, 2.56 ERA) made 33 starts in 2024. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 191 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 8-1 road victory vs. Astros Sept. 25, 2024
- 2024 road splits: 8-6, 3.89 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 47 ER), 17 HR, 13 BB, 95 K, 1.11 WHIP in 19 starts
- 2024 vs. Astros: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (24 IP, 4 ER), 0 HR, 1 BB, 23 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 3-0, 1.55 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 0 HR, 4 BB, 37 K, 0.91 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 7 starts
McCullers Jr. (0-1, 7.88 ERA) makes his fourth start. He has a 2.13 WHIP, 7.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 8 innings.
- Last start: No decision, 4 IP, 2 R (0 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 road win vs. Texas Rangers Friday
- 2024 home splits (1 start): Loss, 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 3 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 0 K in 13-9 setback vs. Cincinnati Reds May 10
- Last start vs. Mariners (Sept. 6, 2021): Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H (0 HR), 4 BB, 7 K in 11-2 home victory
- Career vs. Mariners: 10-3, 2.80 ERA (103 IP, 32 ER), 9 HR, 1.15 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 18 starts
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Mariners at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:48 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+125) | Astros +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)
Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 6, Astros 5
The MARINERS (-135) are worth a look behind Kirby, who might be able to get through half of the game before turning it over to the Seattle bullpen. The M’s bullpen is very good, posting a 3.35 ERA with just 20 homers allowed, ranking fifth in the AL in ERA. Houston (2.86) is actually No. 1 in the AL in bullpen ERA, and second in the majors, so once the starters get knocked out, runs could be hard to come by.
If you’re on the conservative side, ASTROS +1.5 (-155) isn’t priced out of line. McCullers was a disaster in his only previous home start, but he showed some signs of life last time out. Kirby could have some rust, too, facing a good team at their place. And, remember, regardless of who won, all 3 meetings in Seattle back in early April were decided by a single run.
OVER 8.5 (-118) might be the best play on the board.
We get a matchup of Kirby, a player making his season debut after missing the first quarter of the season due to injury, and McCullers, a guy making just his fourth start in the majors since 2022. We should get some offensive fireworks early on, before the bullpens are called upon.
In fact, your best bet in this game might be OVER 4 (-130) – FIRST 5 INNINGS.
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