Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

The Mariners have started off this big road trip with a very good 5-1 record and have now pushed their record to 15-9 while away from T-Mobile Park. That shouldn’t be so surprising; they’re scoring 5.21 runs per game on the road versus just 4.25 at home. Now comes the main event. As good as the M’s have been on the road, the Astros have been just as good at home. Thankfully, Seattle gets to welcome back George Kirby to the rotation — he’ll be making his first start of the season on Thursday after a spring shoulder injury forced him to miss the first month and a half of the season.

The Astros have sort of limped along in the muddy middle of the American League standings. As recently as May 14, they were a game behind the Mariners in the AL West, but they’re now 3.5 games back after going 3-4 since that date. Houston has had plenty of hurdles to overcome this season. The starting rotation has had a ton of early season injuries — Spencer Arrighetti has been out since the last series between these two teams after an errant hit struck him during batting practice in Seattle, Hayden Wesneski is out for the season with an elbow injury, and Ronel Blanco could be placed on the IL after experiencing elbow soreness after his last start. The big blow has been the hand injury suffered by Yordan Alvarez in early May; they’ve scored just 4.17 runs per game since placing him on the IL on May 3.

The Astros lineup looks pretty punchless without Alvarez anchoring it. Jose Altuve has really struggled this year and Christian Walker still hasn’t broken out of his early season slump. The only batter who’s really contributing has been Isaac Paredes; he’s blasted six home runs this month and pushed his season wRC+ up to 150 after a two-homer day on Wednesday. The bottom of the lineup, in particular, has been a pretty big mess. Houston has been pressing Victor Caratini into everyday duty as the DH or catcher which has forced them to use a bench spot on a third catcher in case of emergency. After such a torrid spring, Cam Smith hasn’t quite adjusted to big league pitching, though his defense in right field has been a net positive.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

Lance McCullers Jr. made his long awaited return from multiple arm injuries a few weeks ago. It was his first big league start since Game 3 of the 2022 World Series, enduring almost 1,000 days of recovery and rehab. At his peak, McCullers was a frontline ace who was able to spin his curveball with the best of them. It’s a testament to his perseverance that he’s even pitching in the big leagues again, and he’s somehow only 31 years old, but I’m not sure he’ll ever be able to get back to that level again. His first three starts this year haven’t been great, though a seven-run, one-out outing is doing a lot of the heavy lifting against his high ERA and FIP. The command isn’t there and his velocity is sitting well below where it was three years ago.

Ryan Gusto has bounced between the bullpen and starting rotation for the Astros as they’ve had to cover for a bunch of injuries to their pitching staff. He’s been pretty good in both roles, though his last start against the Royals was a seven-run clunker. Never a top prospect in Houston’s organization, Gusto nonetheless has carved out an important role on their pitching staff thanks to a deep repertoire. His fastball and sweeper grade out pretty well by Stuff+ and his changeup and curveball have produced excellent results even if the stuff models aren’t impressed by their characteristics.

From a previous series preview:

Framber Valdez turned in another fantastic season last year, earning a seventh place finish in the Cy Young voting, his third straight season with down ballot votes. It’s actually quite impressive how consistent he’s been during this stretch; his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio has barely budged, his groundball rate is continually excellent, and he hasn’t run into any bad batted ball luck or home run issues. It all starts with his curveball. That breaking ball is one of the best in baseball and continues to give opposing batters fits. Valdez has dabbled with a few versions of his repertoire that included a cutter or four-seamer over the years, but he’s settled on the core trio of pitches that have worked so well for him throughout his career. That kind of consistency makes Valdez a bit underrated, but make no mistake, he’s still one of the best pitchers in the American League.

Valdez tossed his best start of the season against the Mariners last time he faced them back in April. It was a six-inning shutout with just three baserunners allowed and eight strikeouts.

This spot in the Astros rotation is a bit up-in-the-air after Ronel Blanco was evaluated for elbow soreness after his last start. It’s likely he’ll be placed on the IL no matter what the severity of his injury is which means Houston will likely need to call on a spot starter for Sunday’s game. It’ll probably be Colton Gordon who gets the call, though Brandon Walter could get recalled after making his big league debut on Tuesday. Gordon has already made two spot starts this year and relies on a bit of mechanical deception to overcome some mediocre stuff. He’s really tough on left-handers with a big sweeper that looks like it’s coming from behind the batter.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers have lost the first two games of their series against the Yankees but have a series against the White Sox to look forward to this weekend. The Angels have stretched their win streak to six games by winning the first three games of their big series against the Athletics and have a date with the Marlins this weekend. It’s within the realm of possibility that Los Angeles will clamber its way back to .500 by next week.