Giants-Nationals Series Preview – May 2025

It’s been an interesting May for the Nationals. At one point, they had a 7-game losing streak and now they’re winners of 5 straight and 6 of their last 7. Their April was similar. The team got off to a 1-6 start, as they usually have under manager Davey Martinez. Fans are wondering if he’s the guy for the job anymore.

They’re not expected to contend in 2025. They haven’t had a winning season since winning the World Series in 2019. This is the 6th season since then. That championship capped a run of 8 consecutive winning seasons, which followed 7 straight losing seasons that kicked off their Washington era.

They have so much young talent that it seems ridiculous to have such low expectations and poor results, but that’s where the San Francisco Giants as they land in Washington, D.C. James Wood (159 wRC+) and CJ Abrams (158) have answered the call on the position player side while MacKenzie Gore (90 ERA-) and Mitchell Parker (108 ERA-) are doing their best to anchor a shaky rotation. Their thin relief core is being augmented by recent 1st round draft pick Jackson Rutledge and recent 2nd rounder Cole Henry.

It’s a tough situation for a team trying to emerge from a rebuild. They’ve done a lot of the heavy lifting by drafting and trading for some cornerstone players, but they haven’t been able to build up much roster depth. On a rate basis, their lineup has been as good as the Giants’ (both 98 wRC+). Their pitching value (4.5 fWAR) is middle of the pack (16th in MLB) despite a 5.24 team ERA (4.18 FIP). Ordinarily, they’re near the bottom there. 28th in MLB, in fact, if you track it since 2022.

Their walk-off win yesterday over Atlanta brought their home record to .500 (12-12), but they’ve been outscored in D.C. by 28 runs. Meanwhile, the Giants are trying to do what most solid to good playoff-bound teams do and win a lot of games at home and play .500 ball on the road. They’re currently 12-12 away from Oracle Park with a run differential of +21. They won 3 out of 4 in the Nationals’ home park last season.

We’re not sure which Nationals team might be showing up this series, same as the Giants. They’re 10-11 after starting the season 19-10. That two-game series in San Diego stands as a line of demarcation for the moment. Pitching-wise, they’ve been great (3.31 ERA / 3.48 FIP) and hitting-wise, they’ve been fine (4.52 runs/game), but they’re just 2-6 on the road in this 21-game stretch and that’s because they’ve played good — and, probably, better — teams (Padres, Cubs, Twins).

The Nationals aren’t better than the Giants, but this is the game of baseball we’re talking about here. That doesn’t really matter. The Giants will need to play good ball and that might not be so easy to do as they enter a series for the first time this series without a concrete pitching plan. After Landen Roupp opens up the series on Friday night, they have a pair of TBD’s as of this writing. Who’s running this team? Farhan Zaidi?

Kidding, kidding. But with Hayden Birdsong in the rotation now and Justin Verlander on the IL, the obvious options are Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks. But then there’s Carson Whisenhunt, who’s on regular rest as friend of the site Roger Munter has pointed out. Roger noted the other day in his vital There R Giants newsletter that Whisenhunt looks ready, as he’s basically dominating the PCL right now…

Carson Whisenhunt: ERA (3rd), FIP (1st), IP (1st), SO (1st), K% (5th), BB% (1st), K-BB% (1st), Opp Avg (9th), WHIP (2nd), GB% (8th), SwS% (2nd)

… and, most importantly, he’s put some polish on his development:

Carson Whisenhunt has continued to refine his breaking ball, and I think has it in a pretty good place at this point. […] (He’s also throwing a lot more strikes this year, which is a great sign).

The Nationals are about as bad against left-handed pitching as the Giants (84 wRC+ to 83), so throwing Harrison and Whisenhunt at them makes a bit of sense. On the other hand, a weekend of Roupp, Harrison, and Whisenhunt could put their bullpen in a tough spot on this road trip. Next up would be the dominant Tigers in Detroit and then the Marlins in Miami a team that’s rarely good but always a massive thorn in the Giants’ side.

Before all that, though, the Giants will find themselves facing a team with enough upside to cause lots of trouble.

Series overview

Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals
Where: Nationals Park | Washington, D.C.
When: Friday at 3:45pm PT, Saturday at 1:05pm PT, Sunday at 10:35am PT
National broadcasts: None.

Projected starters

Friday: Landen Roupp (RHP 2-3, 4.11 ERA) vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP 2-4, 3.67 ERA)
Saturday: Kyle Harrison (LHP 0-0, 3.38 ERA — 1st start) vs. Jake Irvin (RHP 3-1, 3.88 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Michael Soroka (RHP 1-2, 5.95 ERA)

Where they stand

Giants, 29-21 (2nd in NL West), 230 RS / 188 RA | Last 10: 5-5 (Wild Card #2)
Nationals, 23-27 (4th in NL East), 220 RS / 266 RA | Last 10: 6-4 (5.0 WCGB)

Nationals to watch

Besides CJ Abrams and James Wood, obviously…

Josh Bell: The veteran switch-hitter is having an awful season overall (58 wRC+) and despite having a hit in 8 of 9, just 2 have been extra base hits (a double and a homer). His batted ball data is in the career-lows territory, but in 48 career games (185 PA), he’s been decent (.255/.359/.420). He’s weaker on his right side (30+ points lower by OPS) and he’s just 2-for-31 as a right-handed hitter, so the Giants might not even see him. But if Jordan Hicks gets one of the TBDs, let’s say, I would expect him to be a foil.

MacKenzie Gore: Let’s look square at the Giants’ troubles against left-handed pitching and recognize that Gore is setup to have a very big game against them. He struck out 13 Phillies on Opening Day in Washington and four starts later struck out 13 Rockies in Colorado. He’s struck out 25 in 15.1 IP (3 starts) here in May. He’s 3-1 in 4 career starts against the Giants.

Jose Tena: This win streak has featured some highlights from the 24-year old left-handed hitter, who is slashing .286/.381/.400 over his last 42 PA. He hits for little power but is hard to strike out (11.3% strikeout rate). Not a great defender at the hot corner (-3 Outs Above Average there already, per Statcast), but he’s a pesky contact hitter. Again, he could be neutralized by a potential pair of lefty-starters or be the weird hit getter who flummoxes a young pitcher trying to get a clean inning under his belt.

Robert Hassell III: Acquired from the Padres when the Nationals traded away Juan Soto, the 23-year old former 1st rounder went 2-for-5 with a stolen base in his debut last night against Atlanta. He has a career .386 slugging percentage in the minor leagues, so I envision more of a contact guy than a power guy, but that just means that between CJ Abrams and Jose Tena and Luis Garcia the already pesky Nats have added more pesk.

Giants to watch

Landen Roupp: Boy, he sure put to rest any hint of being in competition with Jordan Hicks, didn’t he? He cemented a spot in the rotation with his first three starts of May: 16 IP 2.25 ERA (3.58 FIP). Two of them were on the road (@ Twins, @ Cubs) and he looked like a veteran major league starter against two veteran lineups. In his sole home start of the month, he gave no quarter to a quasi-Triple-A squad known as The Athletics. The Nats aren’t remarkably better against righties (102 wRC+), but they’ve won 5 in a row and could simply be feeling confident. This won’t be the first game of a homestand, either. It’ll be a Friday night at home, loose after a nice sweep against a division rival. Momentum is as real as the next day’s starting pitcher, of course, and so we’ll see if Roupp can put a stop to their fun.

Patrick Bailey: The Nationals have a switch-hitting catcher of their own (Keibert Ruiz), and he’s managed to put up a league average line. So, as a point of comparison, it’ll be nice for Giants fans to see what’s possible with a switch-hitting catcher in the lineup who can actually hit. From the defensive side, Bailey will need to be on top of things, as Washington’s 51 stolen bases are 5th in MLB.

Heliot Ramos: On the season, he’s slashing .301/.365/.602 on the road. At times, he seems like the entire offense. That feeling ought to persist, though, if the Giants hope to win the series. It’d be nice if other guys got hot, too, but he’s still the hot hand and Detroit is a more likely end to this remarkable May run he’s been on (.385/.447/.677).

Camilo Doval: Washington, D.C. is where Doval’s 2024 ground to a hault.

The Giants demoted him to Triple-A after this game. He’s been on a tear lately and looks to have regained his form. Pitching well in this series would be a good way to purge this memory. Then again, if he’s a great reliever, he already has.

Prediction time