Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs CIN (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
I’ve been pretty vocal about my skepticism of AJ Smith-Shawver being someone to hold in 12-teamers before he gets a fair number of starts and adapts the approach we’ve seen thus far. And he clearly didn’t care what I think after tonight’s brilliance against the Reds: 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches (W). Just one hit as he pounded the zone incessantly with four-seamers and the Reds obliged. They often do.
This outing was so strange to watch. The splitter came in two variants – one with decent drop and arm-side movement, and one that almost looked like a knuckler as it didn’t move. It just floated up to the plate at 80-86 mph with under 1,000 rpm. It was weird and also very chaotic. Whatever that thing was, it returned just 14% CSW and only 45% strikes, while the curve (ahhhh a normal secondary pitch) was just as ineffective with 42% strikes. Yikes.
And that’s everything. Seriously, that’s it. Smith-Shawver’s four-seamer comes with 95 mph velocity and roughly seven feet of extension that could be sustainable if located upstairs to take advantage of a solid 1.3 HAVAA. But it doesn’t. It feels like smoke and mirrors and we’ll be hearing the Myth of an AJ breakout for a while longer.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs SDP (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.
Atta boy Rodón. Strikes came from everything and we even saw a bunch of effective one-seam sinkers in action, too. He’s in a really good place right now.
Cole Ragans (KCR) vs CHW (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna PEW PEW PEW for a Golden Goal. That changeup was just so dang filthy with a legit BSB approach to RHB. He’s so fun to watch.
Jack Dreyer (LAD) @ MIA (ND) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 10 pitches.
Dreyer opened for Ben Casparius, who did what we wanted him to do, for the most part: 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 70 pitches (W). The approach was mostly what we expected with 96/97 mph four-seamers with solid vert + sliders and cutters, with some extra curves to LHB. The command isn’t quite polished yet with a heavy collection of offerings over the heart of the plate and I wish there were a sinker to feature armside to complement the rest of the approach, but this will work. It’s a great situation with the Dodgers, especially if they’ll continue to open for him. Enjoy those easy Wins.
Tobias Myers (MIL) vs HOU (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.
Well look at you! That’s a Gold Star for Myers with a 37% CSW on his four-seamer and a slider + cutter that got tagged over the plate but did enough. No, I’m not ready to grab Myers after this, but at least he’s getting ramped up and surviving with the heater once again.
Griffin Canning (NYM) @ ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.
I think I get the most comments about my lack of love toward Canning, who I give all the props for his successful season thus far. Just because I don’t believe he’s changed from last year doesn’t mean I won’t celebrate with him on the days it goes well, like this! However, for making your fantasy decisions, I warn you that the pitches are mostly the same from last year. That means the culprit likely lies in HOTEL and what do you know. Canning has suddenly gone from a career 1.52 HR/9 to a 0.58 mark, while carrying an unsustainable 84.6% LOB rate. And even with this outing, he’s still walking roughly 10% of the batters he faces. But this is his fourth start of 1 ER or fewer! It’s also his third straight start of a 1.40 WHIP or higher. You do the math, this isn’t gonna last. But sure, you do you, hold Canning until it breaks, with an eye on the Cubs up next.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
IT’S ABOUT DANG TIME. Sure, the slider was a bit of a whack attack (14% CSW and 1/14 whiffs…but mostly because he barely faced LHB), but 7/22 changeup whiffs and four-seamers at 93 mph living upstairs for plenty of whiffs and a high 77% strike rate. Yes, let’s keep riding that changeup feel into his next start against the Mets.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ CHC (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 77 pitches.
This is so much better. The curve and sinker were fantastic around the edges in this one, while we saw a fair share of changeups around the zone, too. I wish there was a little more to appreciate from that slowball and more than two cutters in the mix, but watching Roupp return 11/30 called strikes on the sinker to set up the hook is exactly what we like about him. Against the Cubs, too! No more Landen on the wire, you’ll stick on my teams.
Shane Smith (CHW) @ KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
Whoa, he kept the velocity up at 96 mph! Through 91 pitches! Well it fell down to 94 mph. Okay, fair, but he normally averages 94 mph to include that fatigue throughout the start. He may be starting to come around, y’all. Next up, nailing down the changeup and slider command. You got this Shane. You’re the last Shane left.
Nick Pivetta (SDP) @ NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.
Was I too low on Pivetta today? No, it’s the children who are wrong. He did a brilliant job of locating his four-seamer upstairs, but the sweeper, curve, and cutter all weirded me out. This was a bit rainy in NYC and that may have effected his grip, but long story short, Pivetta’s absurd sub 2.00 ERA and sparkling WHIP are not destined to stick around. You know that, right?
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) @ STL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.
Is this the last start we’ll get from Carmen? Does that mean you think Bubba could be here by the weekend? It could happen.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs NYM (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
He’s back in the rotation for the first time this year and it’s wise to take a step back and wait for him to be stretched out and producing at a level when we can’t ignore hi—Wait. 96 mph with seven feet extension, 19″ of vert, and a 1.3″ HAVAA?! Ryne, you RASCAL! How dare you earn just 53% strikes with that pitch, get it upstairs and LIVE THERE? That is far better of a foundation than I thought you had. Man, if the cutter can actually get down, then he could take full advantage of this. Burnes isn’t confirmed to miss more than one start. Ugh. Right. Well let’s see how this plays out and be ready to pounce.
Ronel Blanco (HOU) @ MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
A VPQS isn’t great and there wasn’t much to appreciate about this one outside of a legit slider and his four-seamer generally being effective support. I don’t love this, but I’m down to stream Blanco whilst hosting the Reds. Just look at Shawver, after all.
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
Whoa whoa whoa, Mikolas was on a great run! And it was the Pirates! It’s Mikolas. Okay, that checks out. And the Pirates are a Tier 2 offense according to PL Bot. Okay, that doesn’t check out. But you know what, I get it. They’ve been oddly disruptive at times and sometimes, you gotta listen to the bot.
Brady Singer (CIN) @ ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 102 pitches.
Singer’s slider hasn’t returned double-digit whiffs in a long time. And he hasn’t earned a single whiff with the slider since last week. Wat. No johns, 0/33 whiffs on the slider in this one. That’s all kinds of noooooope.
Luis Severino (ATH) vs SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.
That cutter is helping, but I still worry there isn’t enough in the tank to warrant a spot on your 12-teamers. Also, yes, I recognize the Mariners as a solid offense away from @TEA.
Bryce Miller (SEA) @ ATH (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. Miller, this season has been rough. 94 pitches suggests his back issue from last time was resolved, but a HAISTBMBWT?! from Bryce may be the splash of cold water we all needed. 2/33 whiffs with 24 swings is a whole lot of contact for his normally stellar four-seamer, which featured a 1-2″ drop in vert. I don’t think he pitched particularly terribly, just not one of those days. We’ve had a lot of those. Yeah, I know.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
Sigh. We knew this wouldn’t go well and I’m still sad about it. At least his velocity is still there at 97+ mph and he leaned heavily into the 85/86 mph curve, which should help him out in the long run. The bad news? That curve was sub 50% strikes and the heaters are not spotted well. Look, I told y’all to ignore this outing and given there aren’t major red flags, I think we’re safe to let him fly next time out. He gets the White Sox. That has to work out.
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